{"id":932,"date":"2026-09-13T23:13:34","date_gmt":"2026-09-13T23:13:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cityflowjournal.com\/?p=932"},"modified":"2026-09-13T23:13:34","modified_gmt":"2026-09-13T23:13:34","slug":"the-west-is-losing-two-wars-at-once","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cityflowjournal.com\/?p=932","title":{"rendered":"The West is losing two wars at once"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

These days one reads fewer stories <\/span>proclaiming the turning <\/span>of the tide in the Russia-Ukraine war. There are also fewer tweets from Donald Trump threatening Iran with imminent destruction.<\/span><\/p>\n

Read more MR James still haunts England<\/a><\/p>\n

Now that the noise has receded, it is a good time to listen. I am not hearing <\/span>of a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive. What I am hearing instead is the thud of Russian jackboots marching deeper into the parts of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine that <\/span>Vladimir Putin does not yet control.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, in the southwest of the Arabian Peninsula, the Houthis have taken control of the strategic port city of Mokha. <\/span>The city lies just to the north of the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb<\/span>, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. So far, the Houthis have not been able to interdict shipping through the Strait, as Iran did in the Strait of Hormuz. But since capturing Mokha they have also seized Perim Island, in the middle of Bab el-Mandeb, putting them in a far stronger position to threaten passing ships. If they succeed in closing the Strait, Iran and its allies would control the main maritime bottlenecks of the Middle East.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

That spells economic peril for the West. Before the war, the vast majority of oil produced in the Arabian Peninsula traveled through the straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Right now, about 400,000<\/span>\u00a0barrels of Saudi Arabian oil flow through Bab el-Mandeb <\/span>per day, only a small fraction of production. <\/span>And after the Houthis captured Mokha, the price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, is back to around $100 per barrel. This is not the short, sharp oil-price shock that the markets had anticipated when the Iran war started. Leon Panetta, <\/span>who was director of the CIA under President Obama, now warns of a \u201cforever war\u201d, with no signs of it being resolved one way or the other.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Economists and central bankers have neatly divided the economic consequences of the war into three scenarios: baseline, adverse and severe. I would describe the situation we are in today as adverse, heading towards severe.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A crude oil price of $100 translates into higher prices for petrol, diesel, heating oil, kerosene and other downstream products. <\/span>A severe winter could lead to heating gas shortages in Germany, <\/span>for the country\u2019s storage tanks <\/span>are already at record-low levels. A $100 oil price is not one at which our <\/span>Western economies function <\/span>smoothly.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It is a price, however, at which the Russian economy functions very well. <\/span>And oil<\/span>, ominously, is what links the two wars. The longer the war in Iran lasts, the greater the financial boost for Russia, whose main exports are oil and gas. <\/span>As a result, an unwelcome scenario presents itself: the US loses its war against Iran, and Ukraine loses to Russia.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Most wars do not end in outright victories or defeats. My central expectation for both is a messy draw: some dirty deal that would leave Iran charging money for passage through the Strait, with Trump and his business associates getting a cut. For Ukraine, I would define a draw as Russia keeping its presently occupied territories <\/span>and obtaining assurances that Ukraine<\/span> will stay outside Nato. But the odds of a bad outcome, from a Western perspective, are shortening.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For one, there is clearly a <\/span>risk that other European countries might be drawn into the war \u2014 just as there <\/span>is an escalation risk in the Middle East. The two wars could also fuse into a broader Eurasian <\/span>conflict that acts <\/span>as a proxy war between the US and China.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And I doubt that the aging societies of Western Europe have the stomach for a sustained fight. <\/span>These countries are having to borrow money to meet their defense spending targets. <\/span>Nor do they have an excess of young men eager to fight the Russians in a war that could <\/span>later involve the use of nuclear and chemical weapons. <\/span>In the event of war, our massive wealth and income redistribution systems would<\/span> have to be painfully cut back, with millions thrown into immediate poverty.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It is easier, then, to send money to Ukraine without committing troops. Ukraine <\/span>has received hundreds of billions <\/span>of pounds in military and financial support from the West, but Russia <\/span>has still managed to outspend it. Russia hit a short recession earlier this year but is now recovering, in part due to the rise in the oil price.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

At the same time, the US, and by extension Ukraine, is suffering from a shortage of<\/span>\u00a0interceptor missiles<\/span>\u00a0used to take down incoming missiles and drones. Despite its formidable military capabilities, the US is not geared up for a long war. <\/span>Its weak link is the supply chain. The same is happening in Europe, <\/span>where decades of running down defense spending have taken their toll.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Read more Piddington\u2019s very English revolution<\/a><\/p>\n

Britain has an army of 75,000 troops, <\/span>a force so depleted that it could only \u201cseize a small market town on a good day\u201d. <\/span>These are the immortal words of General Sir Richard Barrons, a former military commander and co-author of the UK\u2019s recent defense review.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

So what makes us so <\/span>certain we can stop Russia winning in Ukraine? The Russians, too, are brimming with confidence. They are so confident of victory right now that they are no longer even interested in peace talks.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

When Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump\u2019s special envoy for peace missions, and Jared Kushner, Trump\u2019s son-in-law, visited Vladimir Putin last week, it turned into a toe-curling embarrassment. Putin was happy to receive them and hear their sycophantic praise. But he did not appear in a hurry to cut a peace deal, and the commentary in the Russian media about the visit was caustic. Dmitry Drize, a political commentator at Kommersant FM, wrote: \u201cThe visit followed the standard formula \u2014 arrival, restaurant, reception in the Kremlin\u2026 One would really like to see something more.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

We have clearly moved beyond the period of US-Russian rapprochement marked by the Anchorage summit between Trump and Putin in August last year. <\/span>At the time, Russian elites fell over themselves in their praise for Trump. <\/span>No longer. Putin has the look of a man who thinks he can win.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

He has miscalculated before and may do so again. His invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was a shambles. But the Russian army regrouped, and Russia is today in a stronger position <\/span>than its opponent.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For many in the <\/span>West, <\/span>though, the idea of a Russian victory is <\/span>still too painful to contemplate. If we treat something as unthinkable, we do not think about it. <\/span>But underestimating your enemy is exactly how you lose wars. Even after four and a half years, I do not understand the strategic objective of <\/span>Western support for Ukraine. I am not questioning the principle, but I fail to see what exactly the intended purpose is in concrete strategic terms.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

One of the few in Europe who pretends to have a strategy is Rados\u0142aw Sikorski, the Polish foreign minister. His words do not reassure me. He once defined the strategy as one of exhausting the enemy, much as the <\/span>Allied Powers defeated Germany in World War I. But the situation today is not comparable. Russia has not hit critical energy shortages as Germany did back then. The idea that we would win an endurance contest against Putin when oil prices are high seems <\/span>over-optimistic.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Last week, Sikorski claimed in a separate interview that the EU economy is nine to 10 times larger than<\/span> that of Russia. This is not merely a false statistic; it is a Napoleonic-scale misjudgment of the size of Russia. Measured in dollars, the EU<\/span>\u00a0is indeed much bigger. But <\/span>because Russia has been cut out of the dollar markets, that\u2019s not a smart way to look at relative size. The best way to compare ourselves with a country like Russia, China or Iran, especially for military purposes, is purchasing power \u2014 literal bang for the buck. On that metric, the EU is three times as large as Russia. And even that does not tell us what we need to know, because the EU is spending only a tiny proportion of its economic output on helping Ukraine, whereas Putin is spending a lot more.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The military metrics tell no more flattering a story. The EU has 1.3 <\/span>million active military personnel, approximately the same as Russia. <\/span>But in terms of military production, Russia beats the EU hands down. For example, Russia produces 3.4 million large howitzer shells per year, <\/span>substantially more than the EU\u2019s projected annual capacity of two million. This is true for many other weapons categories as well.<\/span><\/p>\n

Back in March, Trump said the White House expected the war to last for four or five weeks. But historians have seen that kind of delusion before. When Germany started World War I in August 1914, Kaiser Wilhelm confidently told his troops: \u201cYou will be home before the leaves have fallen from the trees.\u201d Today\u2019s equivalent is the assertion that Russia and Iran are easy to defeat because we are so much richer than them.<\/p>\n

The bottom line is that Trump has no strategy for the Middle East, just as Europeans have no strategy for Ukraine. We are rich and creditworthy enough to keep supporting Ukraine and battle Iran a little longer. But in either case I struggle to see a path to victory<\/span>, for we are not willing to put our money, and our troops, where our mouth is.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Read more The cinema of 9\/11<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

These days one reads fewer stories proclaiming the turning of the tide in the Russia-Ukraine war. There are also fewer tweets from Donald Trump threatening Iran with imminent destruction. Read more MR James still haunts England Now that the noise has receded, it is a good time to listen. I am not hearing of a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":931,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[244],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-932","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-geopolitics"],"yoast_head":"\nThe West is losing two wars at once - \u0421ity Flow Journal<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cityflowjournal.com\/?p=932\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The West is losing two wars at once - \u0421ity Flow Journal\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"These days one reads fewer stories proclaiming the turning of the tide in the Russia-Ukraine war. 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