{"id":771,"date":"2026-08-20T23:38:49","date_gmt":"2026-08-20T23:38:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cityflowjournal.com\/?p=771"},"modified":"2026-08-20T23:38:49","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T23:38:49","slug":"germanys-demographic-disaster","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cityflowjournal.com\/?p=771","title":{"rendered":"Germany’s demographic disaster"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Early on 13 August 1961, Berliners woke up to find their city divided. The East German regime was building the Berlin Wall in a desperate attempt to stop its people from leaving. Around <\/span>2.5 million<\/span> had already done just that, since the foundation of the two German states in 1949. When the Wall fell peacefully in 1989, the exodus wasn\u2019t supposed to resume. But it did, and on a devastating scale.<\/span><\/p>\n

Read more Why America is running out of missiles<\/a><\/p>\n

Sixty-five years on from when the wall went up, Germany\u2019s eastern regions are trapped in a depopulation spiral. Nearly <\/span>a quarter<\/span> of former East Germans have moved west or abroad <\/span>since<\/span><\/i> German reunification. Most are young, well-educated and female. That\u2019s left behind a region that is now Germany\u2019s oldest, with its birth rate among the lowest, and with many of its communities watching schools, playgrounds, clubs and traditions slowly disappear.<\/span><\/p>\n

While recognizing the scale of the demographic collapse, Germany\u2019s established parties have tended to treat it as an economic issue, all while suggesting mass immigration as the answer: if you don\u2019t have enough people, just import some. But Eastern voters don\u2019t view demographic decline as a shortage of workers; they see the world they know disappearing, and they respond with pessimism. Mainstream politicians have ignored and even belittled this anxiety at their peril. Now, Right-wing populists are stepping into that void with spectacular success. The German East isn\u2019t the only example of such dynamics, but it is a particularly stark one.<\/span><\/p>\n

One thing that hit the East particularly hard was the speed of the change. When I was born in East Germany, in 1985, the <\/span>birthrate<\/span> was beginning to decline but was still above 1.7 children per woman. My family was pretty typical in having two children. In West Germany, the birthrate was already 1.3 \u2014 almost exactly what it is <\/span>today<\/span> across the reunified country. In what was formerly East Germany, though, it\u2019s now just <\/span>1.2<\/span>. In the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, where, in 1990, nearly 32,000 children were born, there were fewer than 12,000 new babies last year \u2014 the lowest number on record.<\/span><\/p>\n

On 6 September, Saxony-Anhalt goes to the polls to elect a new state parliament, and the way the parties are addressing the demographic crisis couldn\u2019t be more different. The state government is currently run by the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU), as it has been for most of the time since 1990. Their <\/span>campaign<\/span> focuses on the usual issues: jobs, crime, education, welfare, migration, healthcare. \u201cDemographic change\u201d is mentioned in the <\/span>, but as a fact, something to be managed rather than addressed \u2014 let alone reversed. Voters seem unconvinced. <\/span>Polls<\/span> have the CDU at around 23% at the moment, down from 37% at the last election.<\/span><\/p>\n

By contrast, the Alternative f\u00fcr Deutschland (AfD), whose Saxony-Anhalt branch has been <\/span>classified<\/span> by domestic intelligence as \u201cRight-wing extremist\u201d, is currently at 43%, very close to achieving an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament. They have come out hard on the issue of declining birthrates. Indeed, it\u2019s the first item on their <\/span>manifesto<\/span>. \u201cGermany suffers from massive depopulation,\u201d they write in the first sentence of the first chapter. \u201cWhat in political debate is referred to as \u2018demographic change\u2019 is nothing less than the aging and extinction of the German people.\u201d The text goes on to claim that the \u201cruling parties\u201d have known the extent of the problem for decades but are lacking \u201cthe political will or the courage to enact the measures that would be necessary to reverse the trend\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

The AfD\u2019s language may be stark, but the party is not wrong to suggest that the established parties are deeply uncomfortable with the idea of discussing explicitly pro-natal politics. As with many other topics, debates around demography are fraught with uniquely German anxieties. The country where Nazis once pinned medals on the chests of particularly fertile mothers doesn\u2019t want to be seen to be doing anything like it ever again.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Indeed, there was public outrage when the <\/span>popular<\/span> German news anchor Eva Herman started talking about it in 2007. Arguing in books and TV appearances that the German people was on the <\/span>brink of extinction<\/span> because feminism was eroding traditional family models and causing low birth rates, she referenced Nazi family policy. Hitler\u2019s Germany, Herman claimed in a press conference, \u201cwas a cruel time\u201d, one which ultimately led the country to its downfall.<\/span> But, Herman <\/span>added<\/span> , \u201cthen we also abolished what was good, and that was values, children, mothers, families, solidarity\u201d. <\/span>Facing massive public criticism, and despite trying to back-track, Herman<\/span> was fired from her job as a newsreader.<\/span><\/p>\n

It was a lesson in what isn\u2019t sayable in Germany around declining birth rates. All the same, today\u2019s politicians and commentators would do well to take a closer look at Nazi pro-natalism: not to emulate it, but to see where ignoring the issue can lead if it\u2019s left to extremists.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the Twenties, too, many Germans were beset by demographic anxiety. <\/span>Birth rates<\/span> had plummeted from above four children per woman at the end of the 19th century to below replacement levels. The <\/span>First World War<\/span> had claimed the lives of around two million German men on the front lines, as well as hundreds of thousands of civilians. A smaller and continually shrinking population now worried over <\/span>\u201cempty cradles\u201d<\/span>, an issue never explicitly addressed by a deeply fractured political class whose political bandwidth was eaten up by infighting and economic turmoil.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For the Nazis, though, pro-natalism was a central strand of their ideology. Their program attempted to increase the number of children through a mixture of propaganda, financial incentives and outright coercion. The most famous policy was the \u201cMother\u2019s Cross\u201d, a state decoration introduced in 1939 to honor German mothers with at least four children. Other policies aimed to drive women out of employment and into domesticity. In 1936, a Reich Central Office for Combating Homosexuality and Abortion was established to discourage acts that obstructed reproduction.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Over time, Nazi policies became more and more extreme. While forced sterilization programs and the outright murder of disabled people and ethnic minority groups aimed to limit the number of children the Nazi regime deemed undesirable, marriage loans and education for girls, that prepared them explicitly for future roles as mothers and housewives, were supposed to encourage the birth of more children for the German \u201cPeople\u2019s Community\u201d.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the SS created the so-called Lebensborn<\/em> program, originally established to support unmarried, pregnant \u201cAryan\u201d women to have their children rather than seeking illegal abortions. During the war, the program radicalized and became involved in a number of increasingly bizarre and cruel practices, including the abduction of thousands of foreign children who happened to either be ethnically German or at least looked like they might be. Lebensborn<\/em> claimed to \u201crepatriate\u201d these children by placing them in German families.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the Nazis pursued demographic policies that involved state-orchestrated murder, the East German regime kept its existing population in the country at gunpoint. Given this historical backdrop, it\u2019s hardly surprising that few German politicians today wish to discuss depopulation as something other than an unalterable fact. It\u2019s much safer to think of people as workers or commodities, a view that allows the \u201ctopping up\u201d of missing young people through immigration.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Indeed, that\u2019s exactly how the refugee crisis of 2015, when Germany took in more than <\/span>one million people<\/span>, was framed.\u00a0<\/span>As the German Economic Institute <\/span>wrote<\/span> in 2016, \u201cthe immigration of refugees rejuvenates the German population\u201d. You still hear similar noises from regional governments a decade on.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And, certainly, most people I meet when I return to the former East Germany haven\u2019t got a problem with controlled labor immigration \u2014 so long as the migrants integrate culturally and learn to speak German. But they don\u2019t see it as an answer to depopulation. On the contrary: t<\/span>hey see their children leaving and birthrates plummeting, even as the <\/span>population of foreign nationals<\/span> in Saxony-Anhalt has doubled since 2015. On average, the newcomers are 18 years younger than the local population, while a\u00a0<\/span>quarter of children<\/span> born in Saxony-Anhalt in 2025 had a mother without German citizenship. This tends to fuel rather than alleviate anxieties of social and cultural change, whatever the established parties might claim.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The AfD, as a new party, only founded in 2013 and well used to being labeled as <\/span>Nazi<\/span>, has no qualms about suggesting <\/span>pro-natal policies<\/span>. Among other things, it wants to introduce a \u201cWelcome\u201d payment of \u20ac2,000 for the first two children of a family, and then \u20ac4,000 for each additional child if at least one parent is German. Abortion is to be discouraged and an ultrasound would be compulsory before an abortion is permitted.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The AfD manifesto blames what it calls a \u201cperverted Left-wing, radical feminist and individualist\u201d spirit in German institutions, including schools, for the demographic collapse. \u201cRising abortion rates and declining birthrates,\u201d the party claims, \u201care also connected to the fact that sexual deviances and non-reproductive lifestyles are now enjoying more acceptance and are more aggressively advocated than the normal family consisting of a man and a woman from which children are born.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The primary aim of these policies is not to ensure a sufficient workforce for economic stability and growth: but sustaining the German population as an ethnic and cultural entity. Or, to quote\u00a0analysis in <\/span>Die Zeit<\/span><\/em>, population decline is something \u201cmost parties view as a danger to the labor market and to pensions \u2014 the AfD senses a threat to the nation.\u201d Most Germans, too, want less migration, especially of the unselective kind. Last year, a <\/span>poll<\/span> found that 68% of Germans want asylum numbers to go down, the highest such figure in a decade.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

By emphasizing immigration while leaving Germany\u2019s demographic anxiety entirely to the AfD, the mainstream parties are losing a lot of ground. And not just here: from Hungary to Poland, pro-natalism is largely a Right-wing populist concern. <\/span>For the most part, of course, pro-natalism, doesn\u2019t appear to work; the <\/span>AfD may well prove to be unsuccessful with its efforts in Saxony-Anhalt, should it come to power there. Even the Nazis\u2019 aggressive policies only <\/span>increased the birth rate<\/span> a little bit in peace time, before it plummeted again after 1939.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

What to actually do about population decline amid changing lifestyles and gender roles remains a complex and ongoing question. But it is possible to acknowledge concerns and discuss the problem without slipping into the racialized or coercive politics of the past. If mainstream politicians refuse to find answers to that knotty demographic question, then the political margins will do it without them.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Read more Meet the Leftist radicals taking on Meloni<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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