{"id":739,"date":"2026-08-16T23:36:53","date_gmt":"2026-08-16T23:36:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cityflowjournal.com\/?p=739"},"modified":"2026-08-16T23:36:53","modified_gmt":"2026-08-16T23:36:53","slug":"will-the-gulfies-dump-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cityflowjournal.com\/?p=739","title":{"rendered":"Will the Gulfies dump Trump?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

We know the playbook by now. Donald Trump intermittently bombs Iran, albeit less intensely than when the US and Israel began their war in February. Meanwhile, his threats escalate along with his claims that the Iranians are actually begging for a deal. Never mind that this narrative is broken by leaks from the Pentagon and blatant Iranian contempt. On the President goes, hoping this latest round of threats will finally break the deadlock.<\/p>\n

Read more Suicide is a tragedy, not an argument<\/a><\/p>\n

But for how long can his reverie last? After all, rumors of diminishing stockpiles only confirm what a lot of folks, though perhaps not the President, have known for weeks: the US will shortly run out of crucial missiles, drastically impairing its offensive and defensive capacities. The senior brass in the Pentagon have made it clear through leaks that they want an \u201coff-ramp\u201d from this conflict. As for Iran, and despite the considerable damage done to its missile and drone capabilities, it seems able to keep Hormuz effectively closed and its Arab neighbors burning for however long is needed.<\/p>\n

Little wonder, then, that an ever-more-mocking regime insists there will be no deal that doesn\u2019t recognize its right to levy tolls on ships passing through the Strait. To highlight its belligerence yet further, it now also wants to deny passage of any US warship into the Persian Gulf. Tehran further claims it\u2019s negotiating directly with Oman to establish new rules of navigation, cutting Washington out. That last part probably isn\u2019t literally true. Oman has exuberantly played both sides: working with Washington, sometimes sincerely and secretly, to hurt the clerical regime, even as it helps Iran evade American sanctions. Given the way the wind is blowing, however, the Sultanate will now surely listen more attentively to what the Islamic Republic wants.<\/p>\n

All the while, Tehran is gleefully making it impossible for the White House to withdraw from this war \u2014 barring a flat-out surrender in the Persian Gulf, which would also inevitably weaken, if not flat-out demolish, the US sanctions regime. Certainly, Iran\u2019s leaders believe they\u2019ve got both the military high-ground and sufficient economic resilience to outlast the American blockade.<\/p>\n

That matters: for it\u2019s the blockade and sanctions, not more US bombing, that worries them most. The fact is that Islamic Republic is an economic basket-case. The regime is well aware that its abysmal management of the country\u2019s statist\u00a0economy, to say nothing of rampant corruption, has sparked small protests that can quickly accelerate into big ones. Now add war damage. If Tehran actually envisions the blockade lasting, then it\u2019s certainly in its interest to goad Trump into a more intense conflict now. This\u00a0could well\u00a0create the pressure needed \u2014 from missile shortages; the Gulf Arab states; and, perhaps most consequentially, from Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, who thinks a lot about financing the US debt and bond markets \u2014 for Trump to give up. Iran closely follows American commentary on the war, and knows all about how it\u2019s making the President, and the Republicans, less popular by the day.<\/p>\n

If Trump wants out of this duel \u2014 if he has neither the intention of waging a battle for the Strait of Hormuz, nor the stamina for a protracted blockade of the Persian Gulf \u2014 then he will have to find a means to give Tehran its tolls. In practice, that might mean a few more bombs before letting the Gulf Arabs, the Iranians, and everyone else who lives off Gulf oil and gas to figure it out among themselves.<\/p>\n

Trump says now he\u2019s putting his chips on the blockade, which could last until the clerical regime cracks, or until a Democratic Congress or market forces dictate otherwise.\u00a0Certainly, if Bessent believes that important energy factors are enough to keep energy markets and inflation relatively stable, then Iran\u2019s assessment of Trump\u2019s economic patience may prove incorrect. There are reasons for American optimism here, from an increase in US natural-gas exports, which lessen the damage done elsewhere,\u00a0to the fact that\u00a0 upwards of eight million barrels\u00a0of oil are still coming through the Strait each day.<\/p>\n

Not that America\u2019s Middle Eastern destiny is really its own to decide. It\u2019s increasingly clear that the Gulfies, despite Saudi Arabia\u2019s new defense pact with Pakistan and Turkey, and for all the chatter about a revitalized Sunni Gulf Arab alliance, are prepared to pay Iran to stop the war. To Trump\u2019s great dismay, Riyadh even prevented the use of its bases and air space when Trump last seriously tried to open the Strait in May. This highlighted what had been clear about Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman since 2019, when Trump failed to respond to an Iranian attack on Saudi oil facilities: he no longer views the President as a reliable guarantor of his kingdom\u2019s security. MBS, then, has become like the cautious Saudis of yesteryear. In 1996, after the Iranians blew up Americans at the Khobar Towers housing complex, they initially hid the intelligence from Washington for fear that even the d\u00e9tente-seeking Bill Clinton might bomb Iran in reprisal \u2014 and Saudi Arabia would suffer the blowback.<\/p>\n

A protracted blockade can only work if Washington can keep Iran and its Houthi allies from launching damaging missile and drone barrages against Gulf energy infrastructure, including pipelines, and oil tankers in the Red Sea, which Saudi Arabia is using to offset the decline in shipments through Hormuz. The more the blockade squeezes the regime, the more inclined it will be to escalate into missiles and drones against the Gulf Arabs.<\/p>\n

Read more Eric Hobsbawm\u2019s age of contradictions<\/a><\/p>\n

Much to Iran\u2019s displeasure, however,\u00a0tribute-paying Arabs\u00a0might not shred American sanctions. After all, the Gulfies are unlikely to completely dump Washington. Facing Iran with no US backup is likely still scarier than facing the Islamic Republic with a humiliated, retrenching superpower behind them. Old habits die hard, and so too does the hope that America might somehow recover. Like Oman, the other Gulfies might well be discreet: paying Iran through opaque credit mechanisms and barter via trans-Gulf shipping. In this scenario, Tehran would let oil or LNG tankers pass in exchange for much-needed civilian and military supplies.\u00a0A wounded sanctions-regime that significantly increases Iranian business costs might still linger on.<\/p>\n

That still leaves the perplexing, insufficiently highlighted nuclear problem. The Israelis have emphasized their worries about Iran\u2019s deeply buried nuclear facility beneath Pickaxe Mountain south of Tehran. Trump has mentioned the site, and threatened to bomb it. What\u2019s in no doubt is that examining what\u2019s happened at the mountain recently calls into question Israel-American narratives about damage to Iran\u2019s nuclear-weapons program.<\/p>\n

Somehow, the Iranians installed thousands of centrifuges, either assembled or in parts,\u00a0after<\/em> the 12-Day War last June. No one in the White House or Israel has yet publicly explained how this could have happened. Did the CIA or Mossad know that the regime was transporting thousands of centrifuges into Pickaxe? Trump has said this site was being watched around the clock. Israel, too, has its own surveillance. So if Washington and Jerusalem only learned about these activities after the fact, they have an alarming intelligence gap.<\/p>\n

Whatever the truth, all these centrifuges must have come from\u00a0somewhere<\/em>, suggesting the Iranians might have thousands more hidden away. For that matter, they might also have the parts to quickly rebuild a plant for making uranium metal from uranium hexafluoride gas. To make a bomb from there, all they\u2019d need to do is build a sphere and a trigger, something we know they had workable plans\u00a0for as far back as 2003.<\/p>\n

Among the many deficiencies of Barack Obama\u2019s nuclear deal was that we had no accounting of Iran\u2019s hidden stockpiles, which we nonetheless knew existed. A wide array of paperwork, normally given to the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, was never turned over. Critical interviews of key personnel, again normal for the IAEA, weren\u2019t done either. Pickaxe may anyway mean that the 12-Day War didn\u2019t actually set Iran\u2019s nuclear program back very far. Besides, if the regime really did get thousands of centrifuges into a closely surveilled mountain undisturbed, how can Washington possibly know that it also didn\u2019t get generators down there to power them? Certainly, closed-door hearings of Congressional intelligence oversight committees are surely urgently in order.<\/p>\n

When the Soviet Union collapsed, Bernard Lewis, the great Anglo-American historian of the Muslim world, started speculating what the Middle East would look like if Western powers withdrew and only Israel remained as an outpost. Lewis thought the past would probably repeat itself: Iran and Turkey, the two heavyweights of the \u201cgunpowder age\u201d of Islamic history, would likely hold sway once again. In the early Nineties, Turkey was already rediscovering its Ottoman Muslim identity, reanimating its Middle-Eastern appetites. Iran as the Islamic Republic hadn\u2019t yet exhausted its revolutionary potential, despite the horrors of the Iran-Iraq War and the death of Ayatollah Khomeini. As for the Arabs, Lewis thought they were unlikely to coalesce into a competitive military force, leaving them to align themselves with either Turkey or Iran, as they had once chosen the US or the Soviet Union.<\/p>\n

Thirty-five years on, this seems like a decent prognostication. Neither Turkey nor Iran has the power to dominate the Middle East as they once did. But they can fill a vacuum. And more than Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan, whose grand Islamist-cum-nationalist ambitions may not have a successor, the Islamic Republic has shown it has staying power and a lot of young men willing to kill thousands of their own people, as well as foreigners, to keep the dream of a new Islamic Middle East alive. It\u2019s a blessing for the region that the Iranian regime\u2019s internal resources don\u2019t match its foreign ambitions. But Tehran may well have what it takes to humble the Arab side of the Persian Gulf. If it can do that, and gain the revenues that will flow from these tributaries, then a lot of other things will become possible, especially if the United States won\u2019t be there to stop it.<\/p>\n

Read more Inside the Albanian revolution<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We know the playbook by now. Donald Trump intermittently bombs Iran, albeit less intensely than when the US and Israel began their war in February. Meanwhile, his threats escalate along with his claims that the Iranians are actually begging for a deal. Never mind that this narrative is broken by leaks from the Pentagon and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":738,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-739","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interesting"],"yoast_head":"\nWill the Gulfies dump Trump? - \u0421ity Flow Journal<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cityflowjournal.com\/?p=739\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will the Gulfies dump Trump? - \u0421ity Flow Journal\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We know the playbook by now. 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