{"id":640,"date":"2026-08-02T23:10:39","date_gmt":"2026-08-02T23:10:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cityflowjournal.com\/?p=640"},"modified":"2026-08-02T23:10:39","modified_gmt":"2026-08-02T23:10:39","slug":"weaponized-migration-menaces-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cityflowjournal.com\/?p=640","title":{"rendered":"Weaponized migration menaces Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

As 60,000 illegal immigrants poured into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta late last week, there was little sign of concern from Moroccan authorities. One of the many thousands of young men left wandering aimlessly around the city on Friday <\/span>told <\/span>The New York Times<\/span><\/i> that Moroccan police simply \u201copened the border and let everyone go by.\u201d Another said police pointed him in the right direction \u2014 swimming past the corpses of those who failed the attempt \u2014 saying: \u201cGo that way, go that way.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Read more Did MAGA create the Ceuta crisis?<\/a><\/p>\n

Another would-be migrant claimed Moroccan police encouraged him, crying \u201ccome to Spain!\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

It sounds like a tourist board slogan, and it turned out to be misleading. By Friday afternoon, these men, along with most of the illegal arrivals, were already trudging home, baffled by Ceuta\u2019s lack of suitable accommodation, food or drink. Europe\u2019s famed hospitality had let them down.<\/span><\/p>\n

The stories of illegal migrants who made the journey there and back again contrast markedly with official Moroccan reports. Moroccan rights groups <\/span>claim<\/span> police used water cannons and fired warning shots to prevent crossings (clearly with little success). Morocco\u2019s ambassador to Spain said events unfolded against Morocco\u2019s wishes and that \u201cwe have always prioritized legal, orderly and safe migration for all\u201d \u2014 a Freudian slip for the ages.<\/span><\/p>\n

The days since have seen a rash of speculation over Morocco\u2019s motivations for encouraging \u2014 or at least facilitating \u2014 the crisis. Commentators and experts <\/span>point out<\/span> Spanish ties to Western Sahara separatists and the reopening of lucrative economic ties with Morocco\u2019s regional rivals Algeria, as well as Moroccan resentment over the perceived colonial nature of Spanish rule in Ceuta. Other analysts <\/span>argue<\/span> that a nexus of Moroccan, Israeli and American interests has combined in order to undermine the Spanish government led by socialist Pedro S\u00e1nchez, whom Donald Trump appears to see as the embodiment of Europe\u2019s ills.<\/span><\/p>\n

Did Morocco facilitate the crisis? Were the young men\u2019s claims of police encouragement true? This would help explain the scale of the migrant surge, but it cuts against S\u00e1nchez\u2019s public response. <\/span>Rather than rebuking Morocco for its egregious lapse in border enforcement, the Spanish leader thanked Rabat for its \u201c<\/span>cooperation<\/span>\u201d in defusing the situation.<\/span><\/p>\n

S\u00e1nchez saved his ire, instead, for the 22 EU leaders who signed an open letter <\/span>criticizing<\/span> his pro-migration policies, in particular Spain\u2019s recent mass regularization of illegal immigrants. S\u00e1nchez condemned the \u201cselfish, polarizing and unlawful reaction\u201d of his EU peers, saying countries that backed Spain\u2019s temporary suspension from the Schengen Zone were \u201cdriven by prejudice, fake news, ignorance, or political interest.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

In short, S\u00e1nchez appeared happier with Morocco \u2014 the state accused by many of facilitating the crisis \u2014 than with fellow Europeans seeking to enforce stronger migration controls.<\/span><\/p>\n

Granted, S\u00e1nchez is typically a defender of migration. But his refusal to cast blame on Morocco illuminates a shift in relations between the EU and north Africa, driven by migration dynamics. This shift puts European leaders of all stripes in the same boat.<\/span><\/p>\n

The EU has made the externalization of migration controls a crucial factor in relations with countries around its external borders. A cornerstone of the bloc\u2019s rightward shift on migration \u2014 often labeled \u201cFortress Europe\u201d \u2014 is a focus on <\/span>bilateral agreements<\/span> with third countries, particularly in north Africa, which act as gateway states for those seeking to attempt the perilous voyage across the Mediterranean.<\/span><\/p>\n

These agreements tie EU financial aid to efforts from countries such as Morocco, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt to contain illegal migration flows. European nations equip and train local maritime police while disbursing hefty financial aid to sweeten the deal. The EU\u2019s controversial 2023 deal with Tunisia on migration proposed over \u20ac1 billion in aid, while Morocco, another key gateway state, has <\/span> hundreds of millions of euros, most of it earmarked for \u201cintegrated border management and the fight against smuggling and trafficking in human beings.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

EU leaders thought that by externalizing migration controls \u2014 and washing their hands of the dirty work involved \u2014 they had found the perfect solution. Stopping illegal migrants from ever reaching EU soil would, it was reasoned, save the bloc from ever having to confront the thorniest problem relating to illegal migration: the knot of human rights legislation that protects migrants once they arrive. For that reason, leaders hoped that partnership agreements would neutralize public concerns over illegal immigration.<\/span><\/p>\n

But the Ceuta crisis suggests that \u201cFortress Europe\u201d is a castle built on sand, one that is perennially vulnerable to the caprice of Europe\u2019s partners. Incentivizing non-EU states to manage migration flows creates a mutual dependency: the gatekeeper states depend on EU financial aid, while the EU depends on their efforts to keep migrants off European soil. The seismic implication of Ceuta is that, amid growing Western panic over migration levels, that mutual dependency is no longer balanced \u2014 and the West\u2019s partners are learning the art of blackmail.<\/span><\/p>\n

Are S\u00e0nchez\u2019s words, then, those of an out-of-touch, anti-European traitor, as many onlookers caricature him? Or are they, instead, the supplication of a man with a figurative gun to his head? It should, again, be emphasized that there is no hard evidence to prove that Moroccan authorities were complicit in the Ceuta crisis. But the EU\u2019s externalized migration controls have handed its leaders significant power to disrupt Spain and the bloc as a whole, whether they choose to use it or not.<\/span><\/p>\n

Read more A \u2018grooming\u2019 crisis at the ICC<\/a><\/p>\n

In that sense, the Ceuta incident shouldn\u2019t have come as a surprise. The EU doesn\u2019t have to look far for a precedent when it comes to hostile weaponization of illegal migration flows. For years, Poland has <\/span>accused<\/span> Belarus of sponsoring illegal migration, luring migrants from across the Middle East and Africa on tourist visas with the promise of an easy jaunt into the Schengen area. Successive Polish governments have undertaken heavy militarization of the country\u2019s eastern border, and the route has become deadly.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk justified this uncompromising response by <\/span>saying<\/span>: \u201cWe are not dealing with just any asylum seekers, we are dealing with a coordinated, very efficient operation to break the Polish border and attempts to destabilize the country.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The Polish response has been harshly condemned by human rights groups, which, given the severity of Warsaw\u2019s measures, is unsurprising. Measures at the border with Belarus include a 5.5-meter-high steel fence with electronic monitoring systems to detect attempted crossings. Poland has also loosened rules around the use of firearms \u2014 introduced after a soldier was murdered at the border \u2014 that NGOs <\/span>say<\/span> give officers a \u201clicense to kill\u201d. And since 2025, Poland has suspended the right of all arrivals from Belarus to claim asylum. The latter move was <\/span>lambasted<\/span> by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, as well as Poland\u2019s commissioner for human rights, an internal ombudsman, as a violation of European law.<\/span><\/p>\n

From the perspective of stopping illegal migration at the Belarusian border, though, Warsaw\u2019s harsh measures have been a <\/span>resounding success<\/span>. While 40,000 attempted crossings were reported in 2021, and 15,500 in the first half of 2025, the official figure for the first half of 2026 was just 235. Belarus\u2019s focus for illegal migration flows has now shifted to the Baltic states, forcing <\/span>Latvia<\/span> to seal its southeastern border at the end of July.<\/span><\/p>\n

Given openly hostile relations between Belarus and the EU, Minsk\u2019s actions are understood as a form of hybrid warfare and punished as such through sanctions. The EU has no similarly clear-cut way of understanding the new power wielded by its partner states in north Africa. European leaders must, in this context, ask themselves two questions: how can they be sure that gatekeeper states are on their side, and, if there are concerns over these partners\u2019 good intentions, what options does that leave?<\/span><\/p>\n

One potential path is appeasement. S\u00e1nchez\u2019s thanks for Morocco\u2019s cooperation \u2014 in defusing a crisis which it stands accused of having created \u2014 can be understood in this light. The more money Europe pumps into external migration partnerships, the more dependent it becomes on those partner states, and the greater their strength \u2014 and Europe\u2019s concurrent temptation towards appeasement \u2014 becomes.<\/span><\/p>\n

A second option, in which Europe accepts that externalization agreements pose risks, would be to take back responsibility by significantly strengthening EU states\u2019 own illegal migration controls and enforcement capabilities. This won\u2019t happen, though, until leaders tackle the legal protections that migrants gain once they reach EU soil. There is a tight connection between changes in international human rights law and resultant migration: hence the apparent <\/span>link<\/span> between the Ceuta crisis and a Spanish Supreme Court ruling blocking deportations without due process for sea arrivals. It is the opposite effect to the plummeting rate of arrivals to Poland from Belarus since all asylum applications from that country were banned.<\/span><\/p>\n

Thirdly, Europe could consider applying the playbook which it already uses against Belarus and Russia to any state which it suspects of weaponizing migration with hostile intent \u2014 even gatekeeper countries. Hostile exploitation of migration by Russia and Belarus is met with punishment in the form of sanctions and the severing of diplomatic relations. These tools, or at least the threat of them, could be applied more broadly. Facilitating mass illegal migration is not, after all, the act of a friendly nation.<\/span><\/p>\n

The EU is the largest trading partner for all the key migrant gatekeeper nations in north Africa. It has the economic clout to deter potential hostile exploitation of migration by those states, and while not every lapse in migration controls is an act of hybrid warfare, a carrot-and-stick approach \u2014 the \u201cstick\u201d being the credible threat of sanctions \u2014 may restore balance to the increasingly lopsided nature of these relationships.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is disturbing to think that exploitative illegal migration flows may be motivated by geopolitical power games. But Europe should be more disturbed by its powerlessness in the Ceuta affair; a powerlessness created by counterproductive elements of human rights legislation, formalized in externalization agreements with third countries, and exemplified by S\u00e1nchez\u2019s thanks to a state which dramatically failed to uphold its end of the bargain in protecting Europe from illegal immigration.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The EU must also face up to the fact that in the event of instability elsewhere in the region \u2014 renewed conflict in major migrant transit nation Libya, for example, or a breakdown in the EU\u2019s <\/span>fraught relationship<\/span> with Tunisia \u2014 potentially hostile regimes may similarly wield migration as a weapon. This risk is only heightened by the ongoing surge of refugees north from war-torn African states; an <\/span>estimated<\/span> two million Sudanese refugees have fled to key EU partners Egypt and Libya alone since the nation\u2019s civil war began in April 2023.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

One thing has become alarmingly clear: the ability of non-European states, who may not have our best interests at heart, to dictate migration flows, in so doing undermining societies and sowing panic. Europe gifted them this ability. Whatever conclusions it draws from the Ceuta crisis, it must now learn to stand up for itself.<\/span><\/p>\n

Read more The great mayoralty swindle<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As 60,000 illegal immigrants poured into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta late last week, there was little sign of concern from Moroccan authorities. 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