{"id":29,"date":"2026-05-22T22:09:39","date_gmt":"2026-05-22T22:09:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cityflowjournal.com\/?p=29"},"modified":"2026-05-22T22:09:39","modified_gmt":"2026-05-22T22:09:39","slug":"is-this-the-end-of-hezbollah","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cityflowjournal.com\/?p=29","title":{"rendered":"Is this the end of Hezbollah?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Seven. That\u2019s how many times Israel has invaded Lebanon since 1978,<\/span> yet <\/span>this latest incursion could prove the most momentous of all. Unlike previous assaults, changes inside Lebanon itself mean the IDF could finally achieve a long-cherished goal: the crushing of Hezbollah and a political realignment in Beirut that removes future threats to Israel\u2019s security. That, in turn, could shift the balance of power right across the Levant, extending Israel\u2019s influence, and Benjamin Netanyahu\u2019s political legacy, yet further. Still, as always in the Middle East, what happens when the dust settles is a very different question, as is its impact on the lives of innocent civilians <\/span>\u2014 especially when the Lebanese are unlikely to accept Israeli domination for long.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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At first glance, Hezbollah\u2019s actions over the last week seem baffling. <\/span>Despite having been bruised militarily by Israel \u2014 and politically marginalized by pro-American politicians in Beirut \u2014 the group fired several rockets and drones against a <\/span>military facility<\/span> near Haifa. Bolder still, if <\/span>reporting from Cyprus is correct, Hezbollah also launched <\/span>a drone<\/span> against the RAF base at Akrotiri, marking a previously unthinkable expansion of its offensive operations. The way to understand these attacks, of course, is precisely as a mark of weakness. With the Ayatollah dead, the Revolutionary Guards scrambling, and Israeli warplanes operating essentially at will, Hezbollah\u2019s strikes were a <\/span>last-ditch attempt to remain relevant, an appeal to heaven to retain whatever remained of its \u201cresistance\u201d credentials.<\/span><\/p>\n

The contrast with Israel couldn\u2019t be clearer, with the IDF relentlessly hammering Lebanon\u2019s south, the Bekaa Valley, and Beirut\u2019s suburbs. Then there\u2019s Israel\u2019s renewed ground incursion, leading to dozens of deaths so far. Just yesterday, meanwhile Israel <\/span>warned all civilians<\/span> south of the Litani River in southern Lebanon to evacuate, suggesting at best preparations for a wide-scale ground assault \u2014 but possibly also a broader occupation. Yet if all that\u2019s grimly familiar to students of the region (Israel last invaded Lebanon less than two years ago), things today feel different. <\/span>Unlike nearly all Israel\u2019s previous campaigns, this one was triggered not by imminent, large-scale threats to its national security,<\/span> but instead by pre-emptive opportunism.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Right after the October 7 attacks, Hezbollah began sporadic bombardments of Israel\u2019s north, leading to the mass evacuation of Israeli civilians and, the following October, an IDF advance towards Beirut. This time, the militant group\u2019s attack wasn\u2019t even in the same ballpark; indeed with <\/span>only around 20%<\/span> of its original arsenal remaining, Hezbollah was hardly ready for another war against Israel. But having <\/span>developed plans<\/span> for the group\u2019s final destruction months ago, Netanyahu saw his chance and decided to take it.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

While Israel has all but neutered Hezbollah over the last few years <\/span>\u2014 not least via Mossad\u2019s pager-bomb annihilation of its senior leadership \u2014<\/span> this new campaign is yet another expression of Netanyahu\u2019s maximalist logic. Buoyed by Trump, Israel and its prime minister are clearly willing to eliminate even <\/span>potential<\/span><\/i> threats to their interests, whatever the human cost.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet more than Israel, what really matters here are political developments inside Lebanon. <\/span>Channeling the rage of a people drawn into yet another war, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has <\/span>declared<\/span> all Hezbollah\u2019s military activity illegal, ordering that the group finally give up its substantial stock of weapons. Against the odds, Salam\u2019s move is already having real-world consequences. This week, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) has reportedly <\/span>arrested<\/span> a dozen Hezbollah members, something unthinkable even a year ago.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The appointment of Salam as prime minister <\/span>\u2014<\/span> and Joseph Aoun, an anti-Hezbollah Maronite general, to the presidency <\/span>\u2014<\/span> dramatically altered the political landscape in Beirut. At the behest of the Americans, and taking advantage of Hezbollah\u2019s new weakness, Lebanon\u2019s civilian politicians could finally begin to make progress toward replacing the group\u2019s hegemony in southern Lebanon. In the first place, that meant bringing in the LAF, with the Lebanese government <\/span>announcing<\/span> in January that it had completed the first phase of a weapons control plan.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Forced to reckon with this challenging new reality, Hezbollah played along with Lebanon\u2019s government where it had to, while holding jealously to what remained to its political power and military arsenal. Indeed, despite the Lebanese state\u2019s piecemeal efforts at disarming Hezbollah, the group may well have enjoyed a slow and gradual post-conflict decline <\/span>\u2014 <\/span>had it chosen not to martyr itself alongside the Islamic Republic.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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Now, though, not only has Hezbollah given Israel an excuse to finish it off entirely, it has also alienated its most ardent allies among Lebanon\u2019s Shi\u2019a electorate. The Amal Movement, another Shi\u2019a party that had long provided Hezbollah with cover within Lebanon\u2019s explicitly sectarian politics, have abandoned the militants. Just this week, two Amal ministers <\/span>voted in favor<\/span> of a cabinet resolution banning Hezbollah\u2019s military activity. Given the broader context, that\u2019s unsurprising. Shi\u2019a-majority regions of Lebanon suffered more than anywhere else during the 2024 conflict. Lacking both funding and political stability, swathes of the country remain in ruins, even as a new war threatens to bring yet more misery. No wonder even Shi\u2019a strongholds like the Bekaa are expressing open frustration with Hezbollah <\/span>\u2014 perhaps the first time this has happened since the end of the Lebanese Civil War in 1990.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Taken together, Nabih Berri, Amal\u2019s leader and the veteran speaker of parliament, has clearly decided that Hezbollah now threatens his own political survival. Paradoxically, this means that only by meeting Israel\u2019s demands, and allowing Hezbollah to be disarmed, can Berri give his constituents the space and support they need to rebuild their homes and lives. Over the longer term, this may also allow him to lead Amal into the political vacuum once Hezbollah leaves the stage.<\/span><\/p>\n

Of course, Hezbollah won\u2019t vanish overnight. The group still commands fierce respect among its diehard base, especially among Shi\u2019a in the south. But if the Islamic Republic truly does collapse in Iran, whatever funds Hezbollah may have still been receiving from Tehran will quickly dry up, leading to an eventual collapse of not only its military procurement capabilities, but also its state-within-a-state network of clinics, food banks, and other social services. And with the central government in Beirut for the first time trying to confiscate its weapons, Hezbollah will be lucky if it emerges from Israel\u2019s onslaught with even its electoral future intact.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet as so often these days, Israel remains a wildcard. Despite proclaiming victory over the militants in 2024, Netanyahu and his war cabinet have always wanted more. Indeed, given <\/span>American and Israeli pressure<\/span> on Lebanon over the last year, their new campaign isn\u2019t just about smashing Hezbollah, but also about forcing Beirut to normalize relations with Israel for the first time since 1948. Whatever Lebanon\u2019s eagerness for going after the militants, this would be a hard pill to swallow. Regardless of the pro-US, anti-Hezbollah posture of the current Lebanese government, even they understand that they cannot afford to alienate a populace that nonetheless remains deeply opposed to Israel. Though they have signaled an openness to negotiations with Tel Aviv \u2014 itself a major step \u2014 a full-blown peace treaty, and all the Israeli demands that\u2019ll accompany it, may be a bridge too far. That tension, it goes without saying, would set the stage for yet another destabilizing confrontation between Israel and Lebanon: and all at the worst possible geopolitical moment.<\/span><\/p>\n

Given Israel\u2019s current confidence, meanwhile, there\u2019s no reason to think it wouldn\u2019t push its luck and demand a degree of security enforcement over Lebanon\u2019s south as a corollary to its peace treaty, and perhaps even seek to manage Beirut\u2019s military affairs too. While a new occupation is certainly possible, you\u2019d hope that Netanyahu would have learned enough from decades of Israeli errors in Lebanon to know that such a move would only catalyze the rise of Hezbollah\u2019s successor.<\/span><\/p>\n

While Hezbollah\u2019s downfall may be imminent, in short, it won\u2019t happen smoothly <\/span>\u2014 and when it does, new challenges will inevitably emerge.<\/span> The future behavior of Lebanon\u2019s Shi\u2019a will be decisive here, as will the ability of the country\u2019s newly assertive government to quash sectarian rivalries. Violence between the state and Hezbollah, once off the table, is now a very real possibility, but so is the sort of backroom maneuvering that is a hallmark of Lebanon\u2019s bureaucratic politics. While Israeli power is very directly and violently on the minds of Lebanese today, a sectarian civil war could yet loom tomorrow.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

One thing, however, is abundantly clear \u2014 despite Trump and Netanyahu\u2019s desire to carve out a new American-Israeli order in the Middle East, one where Iran is nowhere and they alone call the shots, Lebanon will hardly be a pliable vassal. With or without the Party of God, this country\u2019s long-suffering people have long memories, and the wounds of the last two years won\u2019t soon be forgotten.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Seven. That\u2019s how many times Israel has invaded Lebanon since 1978, yet this latest incursion could prove the most momentous of all. Unlike previous assaults, changes inside Lebanon itself mean the IDF could finally achieve a long-cherished goal: the crushing of Hezbollah and a political realignment in Beirut that removes future threats to Israel\u2019s security. 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