{"id":260,"date":"2026-06-12T04:13:19","date_gmt":"2026-06-12T04:13:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cityflowjournal.com\/?p=260"},"modified":"2026-06-12T04:13:19","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T04:13:19","slug":"can-whitehall-stop-the-riots","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cityflowjournal.com\/?p=260","title":{"rendered":"Can Whitehall stop the riots?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

After a night of unrest in Belfast and elsewhere, the family of <\/span>Stephen Ogilvie<\/span>, the man hospitalized by an attack on Monday night, issued <\/span>a statement via the Police Service of Northern Ireland. In line with similar <\/span>incidents<\/span> threatening \u201ccommunity cohesion\u201d, the Ogilvies pleaded for calm, commenting: \u201cWe have many migrants who make a deeply valuable contribution to our country, including in our healthcare system and hospitality sector and we depend on them to make our country work.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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The statement was laced with officialese: and Ogilvie is reportedly from Rathcoole, a predominantly Loyalist housing estate north of Belfast. Was the suspiciously polished family statement, many <\/span>wondered<\/span>, issued by the Government on the family\u2019s behalf? And if so, why? <\/span>Social media, unsurprisingly, decided \u201cthe State\u201d dictated the Ogilvies\u2019 response. Victims of controversial killings involving ethnic minorities, it was alleged, are manipulated by government spinners. And so the scene was set, digital barricades erected, <\/span>culture warriors<\/span> firing barbs across no-man\u2019s-land. It\u2019s hardly the favored territory of\u00a0 officialdom, with police comms teams too often <\/span>flailing<\/span> in the septic tank of 24\/7 social media.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

What, though, is the truth? Are families pressurized to give statements sympathetic to official narratives? How seriously does the Government take threats concerning racial tension? And, as Britain enters another potential summer of unrest, are police forces prepared?<\/span><\/p>\n

First, the specifics of the family statement. Given the severity of Ogilvie\u2019s injuries, a police family liaison officer \u2014 or FLO \u2014 would be assigned to support them throughout the investigation. Police FLOs are widely considered to be a <\/span>success<\/span> story, offering support to victims during distressing circumstances. Nonetheless, they are also detectives with a hotline to the Senior Investigating Officer. Furthermore, victims\u2019 families do receive advice on issuing statements. Statements might be discussed over cups of tea, FLOs explaining how they might impact future criminal proceedings. All parties are likely to have been briefed by force comms officers, keen to dampen down contentious issues. Note how, for example, Henry Nowak\u2019s father gave a full statement \u2014 one criticizing police actions around his son\u2019s death \u2014 only after Vickrum Digwa\u2019s trial.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It seems likely, then, that the Ogilvies\u2019 statement would have been \u201cmanaged\u201d via the FLO and the wider <\/span>PSNI<\/span>. This is standard practice. Suggestions the security services might involve themselves in such matters, in my experience, are wide of the mark. Given the uniquely fraught circumstances Northern Irish officers operate under, not to mention the forthcoming <\/span>marching season<\/span>, any public statement would attract the interest of a three-ring circus of community and political groups. Added to this is the Sinn F\u00e9in majority administration\u2019s pro-immigration policies, making the party vulnerable to allegations of being \u201csoft\u201d on issues of race. This is why John Boutcher, the (English) PSNI chief constable, tiptoes daily across a minefield of political sensitivities. This isn\u2019t to say there wasn\u2019t some authenticity to the Ogilvies\u2019 statement, nor that the family\u2019s contribution wasn\u2019t heartfelt, but their words seem almost certain to have been polished.<\/span><\/p>\n

Is the Ogilvie case, then, an example of comms management particular to post-Troubles Belfast? Or does the British government routinely control public sentiment in cases involving potential disorder? My experience working in counterterrorism suggests it does, albeit subtly, even if things have invariably evolved. Techniques pioneered to prevent post-terror attack riots are deployed against vaccine-skeptics and those on the \u201c<\/span>radical Right<\/span>.\u201d The Government clearly is spooked: only this week, <\/span>Liz Kendall<\/span>, Secretary of State for Science, declared the Government would urgently seek to update the Online Safety Act so that it requires services \u201cto take quicker action to remove illegal content circulating during times of crisis.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Even during my police service, I witnessed how genuinely petrified senior police officers and civil servants are of wide-scale public disorder. The 2001 <\/span>Oldham<\/span> riots, involving three nights of racially motivated violence, focused their minds. The context, by 9\/11 that September, was that of Muslim communities targeted by the far-Right after any terrorist incident. During the aftermath of the 7\/7 bombings in 2005, working in counterterrorism intelligence, I saw police commanders repeatedly ask the same question: how do we stop Muslim communities from going up in flames? How do we stop another Oldham? Liberal-minded officers, such as <\/span>Brian Paddick<\/span>, were accused of cravenness. Others sounded like colonial governors, fretting over restless natives. That was then. Now, we have pro-Gaza independent MPs exercising de facto <\/span>control<\/span> over police operations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Central government is painfully aware of these problems. The United Kingdom, were it a car, would be a Cold War-era <\/span>Trabant<\/span>, its engine spluttering as an era draws inexorably to a close. This isn\u2019t to say the powers-that-be haven\u2019t mounted a spirited defense, updating the creaking two-stroke engine with a digital-management system. Post 7\/7, the Government established the Research, Information and Communications unit, known as <\/span>RICU<\/span>. A relatively small unit, independent of the security services, RICU works with local authorities and media contractors to create and disseminate content. To counter Islamist narratives, RICU\u2019s communications aim to \u201ceffect behavioral and attitudinal change.\u201d These techniques are also employed elsewhere, as was <\/span> during the Covid pandemic and in the aftermath of last summer\u2019s <\/span>anti-immigration<\/span> protests. Now, though, public information and sentiment strategies intended to combat Islamist terrorism have been targeted at those threatening official narratives around \u201cdiversity\u201d and \u201ccommunity cohesion\u201d. During the same protests, the \u201cNational Security and Online Information Team\u201d, a body within the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, asked online platforms to moderate content critical of government narratives.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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Then, after the post-Southport riots, came the Home Office\u2019s <\/span> \u201crapid analytical sprint\u201d report. Only 18 months old, the \u201csprint\u201d has aged like milk. It posited a new offense of communications that inflict \u201cpsychological harm\u201d, demonstrating Labour\u2019s ongoing obsession with controlling language. It urged the police to increase their use of since-abandoned Non-Crime Hate Incidents. Perhaps most telling of all, though, is RICU\u2019s use of \u201ccontrolled spontaneity\u201d after terrorist incidents \u2014 the kind of tactics the Home Office are likely to use in order to counter anti-immigration sentiment. In that vein, a veteran contingency planner told <\/span>Middle East Eye<\/span><\/em> that \u201cthis job has changed significantly from planning for organic, people responses to tragedy, to being told: \u2018We would like the people to do that, how do you get them there? A lot of the public\u2019s responses are spontaneous, of course. But a lot are shaped. The [British] government doesn\u2019t want spontaneity: it wants controlled spontaneity.\u201d Controlled spontaneity involves bussing in peace-preaching imams. Putting up posters in railway stations. Facilitating vigils. The panoply of \u201cDon\u2019t look back in anger\u201d theatre, inspired by <\/span>the public\u2019s (genuine) response<\/span> to the 2017 Manchester bombing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Admittedly, controlled spontaneity sounds a tall order in a city like Belfast, yet the mindset remains similar. Seize the initiative. Frame narratives. Control. But official narratives have become suspect, especially in racially sensitive cases. For the Government, the potential for widespread disorder explains the urgency of its internet-control agenda. Why? The alternative is unthinkable. Due to austerity, UK police forces are short of personnel, training, and equipment, with the consequence that their ability to keep order has been seriously diminished. For example, after the Stephen Ogilvie stabbing, the PSNI was forced to fly in 200 extra officers from the mainland to <\/span>support<\/span> its operations. At the <\/span>recent<\/span> pro-Palestine and Right-wing \u201cUnite the Kingdom\u201d demonstrations in London, the Metropolitan Police fielded 4,000 officers, but only with reinforcements from as far afield as Wales. Luckily for the Met, the demonstrations were largely peaceful.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This, ultimately, is why the Government devotes so much of its political bandwidth to messaging, communications and sentiment management: its capability to police public disorder has atrophied. An officer with a Home Counties force recently told me how senior officers are currently \u201cwargaming\u201d their response to any repeat of Southport-style unrest this summer. \u201cWe aren\u2019t the Met, we don\u2019t have dedicated public order officers,\u201d he said. \u201cWe\u2019ll be relying on PCs taken from other duties, guys with only basic shield training.\u201d And the mood music in police HQ command floors? \u201cGrim. They\u2019ve run out of money. They simply don\u2019t have enough people available.\u201d His message was clear: if England \u201ckicks off\u201d, it\u2019s every force for itself. As they head off on holiday this summer, this will prey on the minds of chief officers and Home Office mandarins. All this after the performance of Hampshire police during bushfire demonstrations in Southampton was mixed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The UK\u2019s police \u201c<\/span>\u201d arrangements, as seen at the London demonstrations earlier this year, assume supporting one or two major incidents. Multiple outbreaks of serious public disorder would almost certainly collapse the system. \u201cBasically,\u201d said the officer, less prosaically, \u201cwe\u2019d be fucked.\u201d And what, I asked, of the last resort? Calling in the army? He laughed. \u201cThey haven\u2019t got enough people either, have they?\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

This, in the end, clarifies the relative importance of subtler measures. British governments pride themselves on their ability to negotiate. To parley their way out of problems, while assuming the UK remains a high-trust society. A society with a functioning social contract, the glue keeping the Trabant of state legitimacy on the road. This is why, when cuts are required, legislators axe the state\u2019s more coercive arms \u2014 the military and policing.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet now that public trust has eroded, along with the social contract, legitimacy is surely next. The Government, though, will continue with its displacement activity, fretting over internet misinformation and polishing statements made by grieving families. A frontline consisting of internet monitors and family liaison officers, armies of \u201cperformative spontaneity\u201d coordinators urging us not to \u201clook back in anger\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Trabant that is the UK state trundles along, held together with little more than duct-tape and good intentions. Such apathy typifies the mindsets of senior police and civil servants, until the predictable happens. With luck, next time, disorder will again be contained. Reviews will be commissioned and public inquiries launched. Lessons will, allegedly, be learned. And, somewhere, another violent man will cross a border unchallenged. Then another statement will be burnished, until the Trabant\u2019s engine finally sputters and dies for good.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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